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Polyolefin resin industry dynamics and market analysis in 2009

发布时间:2016-12-14 阅读次数:

Affected by the global financial crisis in 2008, the world's synthetic resin demand has been negative growth, according to CMAI's forecast, in 2008 the world's synthetic resin demand fell by about 3%. 2009 although the world's synthetic resin demand has increased, but the growth rate is still maintained at a low level, is estimated to be between 1.5%-2%, of which polyethylene demand growth of 1%, polypropylene is 1.5%, PVC is 1.3%.

From the perspective of domestic economic growth in 2009, domestic consumption and investment will become the main factors driving the growth of domestic GDP, the deepening of the global financial crisis may make domestic exports negative growth. In addition, a significant decline in the price of synthetic resin also makes the use of waste plastics will be significantly reduced, while with the progress of technology will also cause a variety of synthetic resin demand growth is inhibited. The following analysis of the demand for synthetic resins in different industries:

1 packaging industry

Packaging is the largest area of synthetic resin consumption. In recent years, food safety standards are strict, environmental protection has gradually become a trend, so the food packaging is changing, preservation and preserving the flavor, moisture is getting more attention, all kinds of new composite packaging film is more and more popular. Judging from the situation in 2009, due to the slowdown in the economy, the market demand for packaging growth will slow down. At the same time, restrictions on the use of plastic shopping bags policy will reduce the demand for polyethylene. From the development of packaging materials, the market demand for new packaging products will maintain a certain growth, while the growth rate of general packaging products will slow down significantly. The main factors affecting the demand for packaging materials are: to further improve the proportion of bulk cement transport will affect the growth of cement packaging needs to use more and more large; packaging; health increasing requirements on food packaging will be put forward higher requirements. From the material structure, polyethylene and polypropylene are still the main varieties of plastic packaging, PVC packaging is limited to non food products. At the same time, BOPET may replace some BOPP products because of the low price. Expected in 2009 the domestic packaging industry demand for synthetic resin will reach 12 million 300 thousand tons, an increase of 1.7%.

2 agriculture

Although in recent years the domestic agricultural investment continued to increase, but the domestic film coverage area has been maintained at 37 million acres, mulching area in about 220 million acres, is expected in 2009 the domestic film coverage and film coverage will remain at the level of 2008. Agricultural consumption growth on synthetic resin will be mainly concentrated in the agricultural and livestock shed water pipe etc.. Expected in 2009 domestic demand for synthetic resin will reach 2 million 230 thousand tons, an increase of 7.9%.

3 construction industry

Synthetic resin are widely used in the construction industry is PVC, HDPE, EPS, as the main content of national macro-control includes investment in fixed assets and real estate industry, especially the recent decline in domestic prices continued to weaken and sales has affected the construction of new housing construction. Therefore, in 2009 the estimated increase in investment in real estate investment will further decline, will lead to a decline in demand for plastics in the building. From the material structure, PVC is still the main varieties of building plastic products, while HDPE will maintain rapid growth, EPS in the field of wall insulation and other development potential. Domestic construction industry is expected in 2009 to 6 million tons of synthetic resin, an increase of 1%.

4 electronic appliances

In recent years, the development of China electrical and electronic industry has driven the synthetic resin demand is expected in 2009 the domestic computer output will reach 180 million units, an increase of around 15%, while the yield increase in the refrigerator, color TV, washing machine, air conditioning and other products will be substantially reduced, its growth rate is estimated at between 3%-5%. In recent years, flat-panel TV work is nearing completion, the future growth in demand for HIPS TV industry will be relatively stable, while H, PS in other household appliances and computers and accessories production estimates will increase. Expected in 2009 the domestic electronics industry demand for synthetic resin will reach 5 million tons, an increase of 2.2%.

5 commodity

China is a populous country, the demand for commodities is huge, plastic products have been gradually popularized in people's daily lives. However, due to export blocked, it is estimated that the domestic commodity industry demand for plastic products growth will also be reduced. Expected in 2009 domestic demand for synthetic resin industry in 7 million 300 thousand tons, an increase of 1.6%.

Based on the above analysis, combining forecasting model projections, in 2009 five major synthetic resin demand for 38 million 500 thousand tons, an increase of 1.5% compared to 2008, the demand for 11 million 600 thousand tons of polyethylene, an increase of 0.7%; polypropylene demand growth of 2.1% to 10 million 300 thousand tons, PVC demand growth of 2.2%; 9 million 500 thousand tons; PS demand growth of 0.2% to 3 million 700 thousand tons, ABS resin; the demand for 3 million 400 thousand tons, growth of 1.6%.

(three) price

As we all know, the long-term factors that affect the market price are the fundamentals of supply and demand. Analysis of the market situation in 2009, the main factors affecting the price of synthetic resin will focus on whether the demand can effectively restore.

2009 international crude oil prices are expected to remain at 45-60 U.S. dollars / barrel. Because of demand in the world oil market is weak, will directly affect the supply of naphtha, affected by the new construction of world ethylene ethylene plant, will also be operating rate remained at a low level, the estimated 2009 world ethylene starts at 80%-82%. According to CMAI's forecast, in 2009 the cost of ethylene in Northeast Asia is still about 500-700 U.S. dollars / ton, driven by the cost of ethylene market prices will also rise. According to CMAI's forecast, 2009